The key to Yemen and Afghanistan

Guardian
January 24, 2010
By Hendrik Woods

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The coming summits in London on Afghanistan and Yemen will undoubtedly focus on issues traditionally seen as hindering international efforts to advance the long-term stability of both countries. For Afghanistan, the international coalition's objectives will include developing a concrete and coherent set of priorities for the country, improving the co-ordination of counterterrorism efforts, and encouraging some European countries to assume a greater share of the burden. With Yemen, the goal will be to formulate a comprehensive strategy to counter increasing radicalisation and curb the expansion of al-Qaida. But if the parallel London summits are to produce truly meaningful results, one crucial issue must be placed high on the agenda: agriculture. Reform of once-vibrant agricultural sectors in both Afghanistan and Yemen is critical to any international effort to ensure long-term stability and security in two of the world's least governable spaces. In Afghanistan, the success of the international coalition's strategic military objectives hinges on restoring the country's agricultural standing. From the 1960s until the Soviet invasion of 1979, Afghan farmers produced abundant supplies of fruits, vegetables, meats, and cereals for domestic consumption and export. Today, food production in Afghanistan is woefully insufficient. Though an estimated 75% of Afghanistan's 34 million people live in rural regions where agriculture is the principal means of livelihood, estimates indicate that more than six million Afghans suffer from chronic hunger. The greatest single contributing factor to the decimation of Afghanistan's agricultural sector is the conversion of sparse arable land from food production to harvesting poppies. Indeed, curtailing Afghanistan's opium production is perhaps the most essential factor in assuring the country's long-term security and political viability. Taliban activities are principally funded from opium profits, with estimates from 2008 suggesting the drug generated as much as $470m (£291m) revenue – equivalent to roughly 30% of the country's total GDP. While near-term production estimates of licit crops are looking up, there remain significant challenges to successfully revamping Afghanistan's agricultural sector. At the international donor level, the reform process is complicated by disagreements over strategy, inadequate funding, and poor communication – often resulting in a redundancy of efforts. Additionally, the international community must better address impediments at the local level that deter Afghan farmers from harvesting food crops, including substandard irrigation systems, limited access to credit, and a highway system so deficient that Afghan officials estimate only 58% of rural villages have seasonal access to roads, with the average distance to the nearest road being nearly three miles. In Yemen, a country where the average citizen makes just $950 (£589) a year, the situation is even more daunting. Although western countries will more than double the amount of security aid they sent to Yemen last year, it is doubtful that this infusion of cash will be enough to reduce radicalisation and eliminate al-Qaida without a comparable commitment to the agricultural sector. Only a few decades ago, Yemenis were able to feed themselves; now, even though 43% of Yemen's employed adult men are farmers, more than 75% of the country's food is imported. This is mainly due to farmers having switched from growing food crops to qat – a leaf containing an amphetamine-like drug chewed regularly by roughly 80% of the population. Farming qat is easy; as an evergreen, it does not require annual sowing or post-harvest processing. Farmers can just pick the leaves and take them straight to market. Consequently, qat is six times more profitable to farm than any food crop. Thus, the London summits are opportunities to formulate robust strategies for the revitalisation of both the Afghan and Yemeni agricultural sectors. For Afghanistan, the summit must be a meeting where international donors work to better co-ordinate oft-competing agendas and programmes targeting the agricultural sector, and also to improve plans to further shift the country's farmers to licit crop production. For Yemen, the summit provides a chance for western countries to partner with Gulf countries and develop strategies designed to encourage Yemeni farmers to grow food instead of qat. Failure to do so will doom any effort to eradicate al-Qaida from Yemen, and could indeed lead to a situation mirroring Afghanistan – where profits from qat sales are used to fund al-Qaida operations. Participants at the summits on Afghanistan and Yemen must agree to make the common goal of agricultural sector reform a top priority. The summits' success depends on it, as does the future security, stability, and survival of the Afghan and Yemeni people.

NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this information for research and educational purposes.

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